What to Expect from the Solar Industry in 2026

Global Growth Dynamics: Growth Will Continue, But the Curve Is Shifting

While solar capacity has historically grown year-on-year at rapid rates, the solar industry in 2026 will mark a pivotal turning point. Analysts from S&P Global Energy Research forecast that global annual solar additions may decline for the first time in 2026, largely due to China’s policy shifts and slowdown after record 2025 builds. This change does not mean stagnation — most regions will still grow, but the pace and competitive dynamics are shifting.

Implications for B2B Stakeholders :

• Manufacturing: India & Global Supply Chains under Transformation
• EPC and manufacturing firms must optimize operations for profitability, not just volume.

India’s Manufacturing Strength

India’s solar module manufacturing capacity is scaling aggressively, while early shoots for robust growth in backward integration are seen in solar cells, while momentum needs to pick up on Ingots/Wafers and polysilicon further:

• Domestic module capacity is expected to exceed 165 GW by 2027, up from ~109 GW.
• Policy levers like PLI (Production Linked Incentive) are driving local manufacturing with increasing job creation.

However, overcapacity in solar modules is emerging as a real industry risk, especially for new entrants with smaller manufacturing capacities, lacking backward integration (cells, wafers, ingots) and a lack of proven record of accomplishment, as well as established distribution channels. Independent credit ratings firm ICRA highlights that only 70–75% of capacity aligns with premium technologies like TOPCon and bifacial modules. Those with legacy equipment may soon face consolidation pressure.

B2B Takeaways :

• Vertical integration and technology upgrades (TOPCon, bifacial) will be mandatory for competitiveness in 2026.
• Companies should prioritise automation, quality assurance & advanced production lines to avoid being squeezed by excess cheaper capacity.

Technology Shifts: High-Efficiency & Smart Solar Are Winning

A clear theme for 2026 is higher performance with smarter systems.

Market research suggests :

• Over 50% of new deployments will be high-efficiency modules.
• Use of bifacial modules is rising (~35% growth).
• Smart inverter adoption and grid-responsive systems are becoming standards in new projects.

Why This Matters for B2B :

• Buyers like IPPs, utilities, and industrial energy buyers will require with higher performance coming from reliable players and integrated system benefits (analytics, remote monitoring).

Component manufacturers (glass, junction boxes, trackers) should align roadmaps with these efficiency demands to stay relevant.

Policy & Supply Chain: Local Content Rules Taking Center Stage

In India, key policy changes are slated to significantly reshape procurement in 2026 :

From June 1, 2026, all solar projects will be required to use domestically manufactured solar cells under India’s ALMM and ALCM policies.

This creates :

• Strong demand for local cell production lines.
• Strategic entry opportunities for wafer, polysilicon, and upstream component producers.

Market Demand Realities: Overcapacity & Price Pressure

Multiple data points highlight

India to continue its robust growth story in solar deployment

A shift from scarcity to oversupply in some solar segments — particularly solar modules:

• Indian module capacity could outpace domestic deployment demand, especially if project tendering slows, leading to excess inventories.
• At the same time, U.S. tariffs and anti-dumping probes may restrict export routes unless product origin and supply chains are clearly non-Chinese.

Commercial Impacts for B2B :

• Manufacturers should plan diversified export markets beyond the U.S. and hedge tariff impacts.
• Pricing strategies should avoid thin-margin competition; concentrate on value segments with premium products, warranties and quality certifications.

Rooftop & Distributed Solar Demand: A Parallel Growth Engine

While utility scale remains dominant, rooftop, open access and behind-the-meter solar is shaping into a major B2B client segment:

In India alone, over 24 lakh homes have adopted rooftop solar under government schemes — signalling mass adoption momentum that will continue into 2026.

Industry Implications :

• EPCs and distributors should diversify into rooftop cluster projects and commercial solar contracts.
• Procurement teams need to scale inventory for hybrid systems, micro-inverters, and energy storage interfaces.