Weekly Solar Industry Insights: July 29 – Aug 4, 2024

1) Global Solar Installations Forecast:

Wood Mackenzie predicts a significant increase in global solar capacity, with 4.7 TW expected to be installed between 2024 and 2033. China is projected to contribute around 50% of this growth. This expansion is driven by technological innovations, policy support, and growing energy security concerns.

2) Oversupply Drives Down Chinese Solar Cell Prices:

In early August 2024, OPIS reported a decline in Chinese solar cell prices due to oversupply, with Mono PERC M10 and TOPCon M10 cells decreasing by 2.64% and 2.3% respectively. Year-to-year, prices have plummeted 59-63%. Despite a 37.8% increase in cell production to 310 GW in the first half of 2024, oversupply and lower export prices have pressured margins. Efforts to cut production rates to stabilize the market are underway, but persistent low prices could lead to industry consolidation.

3) Residential Solar Market Trends:

The U.S. residential solar market experienced its lowest installation volumes in two years during Q1 2024, primarily due to high interest rates and increased customer acquisition costs. However, lower module prices and growing third-party ownership segments are expected to support market recovery by 2025.

4) Technology Trends and Supply Chain:

Clean Energy Associates reports that TOPCon solar modules are set to dominate the market in 2024, accounting for approximately 75% of global distribution. The report also highlights potential risks related to hail damage as modules become larger and glass becomes thinner.

5) Policy and Market Dynamics:

Trade policies, such as the removal of the bifacial exemption to section 201 tariffs in the U.S., are expected to keep solar prices high. The industry is adapting to these changes by increasing domestic manufacturing capabilities.

Information Source: PV magazine